The post-elite tight end pocket looks tempting because the names feel familiar and the prices look less painful than the elite tier. That doesn't make the group one decision. Some of these bets are built on actual target movement, some are built on touchdown memory, and one young tight end is being charged like the role is already settled.
So ask the draft-room question before you click: are you buying a weekly route and target path, or are you buying the old version of a player? FFN's read is simple: take Tucker Kraft after the top tier if he falls near pick 80, stash Colston Loveland only if the aggressive TE4 cost cools, wait on Mark Andrews until the double-digit rounds, and don't chase Travis Kelce unless your format rewards the reception floor enough to cover the age risk.
Kraft is the first price to test
Kraft's case starts with the part of the position that survives bad touchdown weeks: actual targets. Green Bay didn't need him to become a throwback featured tight end. It needed him to earn enough routes and short-area work that a six-catch game was in range when the wide receivers spread defenses out.
What worked last year was the late-season target climb. In the broader tracked window, Kraft's closing sample showed 7.3 targets per game, a 23.3 percent target share, and 18.0 PPR points per game. The Week 9 usage moment is useful because it shows the caution too: he was still on the field for 32 offensive snaps and 49 percent of the offense, so this wasn't a pure every-snap role by the final log. The bet is that the target claim stays stronger than the snap wobble.
The current draft cost is no longer free, but it also isn't ridiculous. Kraft's standard line as of publish day is TE5 with ADP 71. The projection carries 71 targets and 698 receiving yards, which is enough passing-game involvement to matter when the touchdown week doesn't arrive.
Green Bay's 2025 tendency profile helps the case because the Packers posted a 56.8 percent pass rate and nearly a 50-50 red-zone pass split. That offense can feed a tight end without forcing him to win every week on a goal-line fade.
The January test is clear: if Kraft is available after pick 80, the target trend beats the older name tier. If your league pushes him into the sixth round, the advantage gets thinner because you're paying before the snap share has fully caught up.
Loveland is a role bet with the wrong sticker price
Loveland is the most exciting tight end in this group if you only watch the closing usage. He was not a low-depth player sneaking onto the chart. The public depth chart lists him as Chicago's TE1, and the roster context confirms he is a year-two player. That matters because the price has to include the risk of a young tight end still proving the role over a full NFL season.
What worked last year was easy to see. In Week 18, Loveland logged 13 targets, a 44.8 percent target share, and 50 offensive snaps. In the broader closing window, he averaged 9.3 targets with an 85.3 percent snap share. That's real usage, not a camp quote dressed up as a breakout.
Chicago has to make Loveland's route role travel before the early click works. Loveland's standard line as of publish day is TE4 with ADP 48, while the standard projection is only a rank-based estimate at 52 points. That gap is why the value label is Avoid.
Tight end price check
| Player | Publish-day Slot | Football Case | Draft Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Kraft | TE5, ADP 71 | Targets and target share climbed late while Green Bay's passing profile stayed efficient. | Draft around pick 80 or later if the nearby alternatives look flat. |
| Colston Loveland | TE4, ADP 48 | Closing usage was loud, but the price already assumes a full starter role. | Wait until after pick 70 unless your build needs an upside swing. |
| Mark Andrews | TE14, ADP 96 | Touchdown history still matters, but the snap and target trend moved the wrong way. | Draft only in the round 10 range or later. |
| Travis Kelce | TE11, ADP 106 | Volume can still show up, but the explosive weekly edge has thinned. | Use as a PPR stabilizer, not a name-value comeback bet. |
The target share and play-action fit are interesting, yet the price asks you to spend before Chicago has shown that this passing game will make a young tight end a weekly priority. The Bears threw on 59.7 percent of plays last season, so the environment isn't a dead end. It just isn't enough by itself to make pick 48 comfortable.
That's why Loveland is a conditional target, not a blanket fade. If he slides into the seventh round, the upside finally matches the uncertainty. If he goes near pick 48, you're drafting the best-case version before the role has survived September protections, red-zone substitutions, and the first month of NFL coverage plans.
Andrews needs a price break, not a tribute pick
Andrews is where nostalgia can get expensive. The old case is familiar: Baltimore's offense creates touchdown chances, Lamar Jackson stresses linebackers, and Andrews has been one of the few tight ends who could swing a week on two red-zone catches. Nobody has to pretend that résumé disappeared.
The problem is the 2025 role shape. Late in the tracked sample, Andrews averaged 3.3 targets and 28.3 offensive snaps, while his snap share fell by 11 percentage points from the prior comparison window. His latest logged game had three targets and 30 snaps. Baltimore can still create efficient scoring chances, but a tight end playing that kind of snap profile needs touchdowns to carry too much of the fantasy bill.
Baltimore has to give Andrews more than touchdown dependency for this to work as a weekly TE1 plan. The table's publish-day TE14 slot is playable only if the red-zone role comes with enough routes to keep him alive between scores.
Baltimore's 2025 profile leaned run-heavy by modern standards, with a 53.6 percent pass rate and a 54.8 percent red-zone rush rate. When the offense gets close, the ball doesn't have to funnel through the tight end.
Draft him if your build already has stable weekly volume and you want touchdown access in round 10 or later. Pass if the click requires you to believe the old snap share is coming back. A red-zone role can still win weeks, but it can't be your only plan at tight end.
Kelce is playable only if you price the new job
Kelce is the hardest name to write down calmly because the Mahomes connection is still real. Kansas City brought him back for a 14th season, and 107 projected targets can still help a PPR lineup. The issue is not whether Kelce can catch six balls in a useful week. He can. The issue is whether you should draft him like the weekly ceiling is still carrying the position.
The 2025 closing data says to be careful. Kelce's late sample still showed 5.3 targets per game and an 85.3 percent snap share, but the fantasy output dropped to 4.8 PPR points per game in that same window. His receiving EPA also moved backward compared with the prior comparison window. That is useful football context because it separates presence from payoff. He was on the field. The points didn't travel with the name.
Kansas City's offense keeps him relevant. The Chiefs threw on 66.9 percent of plays last season and used a 61.4 percent red-zone pass rate, so the weekly script still creates catch volume.
Kelce's short-area role is still useful when receptions matter. The table's publish-day TE11 slot makes more sense in PPR than in formats where you need yards and touchdowns to do the heavy lifting.
If you draft Kelce, draft the current version: a reception-floor tight end who belongs after pick 110 in PPR builds. Don't draft the highlight reel unless your league is somehow still giving points for 2020.
What changes the call
This tier flips if the September route charts move. Kraft becomes a stronger target if his snap share climbs into every-week starter territory while the targets stay above five per game. Loveland becomes worth the earlier pick if Chicago uses him as a first-read option on play action and keeps him on the field near the goal line. Andrews changes the math only if Baltimore's tight end snaps and red-zone targets rebound together. Kelce needs either a touchdown spike or a clear sign that Kansas City is still designing high-leverage third-down work around him.
Until then, the draft rule is target trend before name memory. Kraft is the first click after the elite tight ends when he falls past pick 80. Loveland is the upside stash only after the price drops. Andrews and Kelce are playable veterans, but the price break has to do real work before you make either one your TE1 plan.
Pressure-test Colston Loveland.
Walk through floor, ceiling, and cost before you click the pick.