Week 1 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em
Start of the Week
Tua Tagovailola
MIA - QB
Matchup: JAX@MIA
Tua Tagovailola has a juicy matchup against a soft Jaguars defense (22nd overall, 26th against pass) that is projected to be a high scoring game. With weapons like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, Tua should capitalize on Jacksonville's weak pass defense allowing 239.8 yards per game.
Projected: 350 passing yards, 3 passing TDs
Quarterbacks
Starts
Aaron Rodgers
NYJ
Matchup: NYJ@SF
Despite facing San Francisco's strong defense (8th overall), Rodgers has playmakers like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall to exploit SF's 14th-ranked pass defense. The 49ers allow 214.2 passing yards per game, providing opportunities for Rodgers in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Projected: 320 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, 20 rushing yards
Geno Smith
SEA
Matchup: DEN@SEA
Geno Smith faces a dream matchup against Denver's 29th-ranked defense allowing 370.8 yards per game. With weapons like DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba against a defense allowing 24.3 points per game, Smith is poised for a strong performance.
Projected: 280 yards, 3 passing TDs, 15 rushing yards
Jaylen Daniels
WAS
Matchup: WAS@TB
Jaylen Daniels' versatility as a pocket passer and scrambler makes him an interesting prospect against Tampa Bay's 29th-ranked pass defense (248.9 yards/game). His rushing abilities provide a high floor, even against Tampa's surprisingly tough overall defense (6th in points allowed).
Projected: 250 passing yards, 2 passing TDs, 70 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
Sits
Kirk Cousins
ATL
Matchup: PIT@ATL
While Cousins could have a strong season overall, this week he faces a tough Steelers defense ranking 6th in points allowed (19.1 per game). Pittsburgh's 5th-ranked red zone defense (46% TD rate) further limits Cousins' upside in what's expected to be a low-scoring game.
Projected: 240 passing yards, 2 passing TDs
Justin Herbert
LAC
Matchup: LVR@LAC
Herbert faces a surprisingly solid Raiders defense ranking 12th against the pass (212.4 yards/game) and 9th in points allowed (19.5 per game). With a potential shift towards a run-heavy offense under new coach Jim Harbaugh, Herbert's ceiling may be limited this week.
Projected: 240 passing yards, 1 passing TD
Deshaun Watson
CLE
Matchup: DAL@CLE
Watson faces a formidable Cowboys defense ranking 5th overall and allowing just 187.4 passing yards per game. Coming off a shoulder injury and with concerns about his commitment, Watson may struggle against Dallas's 5th-ranked scoring defense (18.5 points/game).
Projected: 220 passing yards, 1 passing TD, 40 rushing yards
Running Backs
Starts
David Montgomery
DET
Matchup: LAR@DET
Montgomery is set to feast in the highest-scoring projected game of the week against the Rams' 20th-ranked defense in points allowed (22.2 per game). Behind one of the best offensive lines, Montgomery should exploit LA's 12th-ranked run defense allowing 106.8 yards per game.
Projected: 120 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, 2 catches, 15 yards
Raheem Mostert
MIA
Matchup: JAX@MIA
Mostert is primed for success in a high-scoring game against Jacksonville's subpar defense (22nd overall). While the Jaguars' run defense is solid (9th, allowing 103.1 yards/game), Mostert's explosiveness and Miami's potent offense should create ample scoring opportunities.
Projected: 80 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 catches, 25 yards
James Conner
ARI
Matchup: WAS@ARI
Conner faces a weak Washington defense ranking 32nd in points allowed (30.5 per game) and 27th against the run (126.8 yards/game). As the bellcow in Arizona's offense, Conner should see a heavy workload and multiple scoring opportunities.
Projected: 90 rushing yards, 1 TD, 5 catches, 35 yards, 1 receiving TD
Sits
Ezekiel Elliott
DAL
Matchup: DAL@CLE
Elliott faces an uphill battle against Cleveland's tough run defense ranking 11th (105.5 yards/game). The Cowboys' offense primarily flows through the passing game, limiting opportunities for Elliott against a defense allowing just 21.3 points per game (13th).
Projected: 40 rushing yards, 2 catches, 15 yards
Aaron Jones
GB
Matchup: MIN@NYG
Jones, an older back with significant mileage, will struggle against a surprisingly tough Vikings run defense ranking 8th (98.7 yards/game). With Sam Darnold under center, defenses can stack the box, further limiting Jones' potential against Minnesota's 13th-ranked scoring defense (21.3 points/game).
Projected: 55 rushing yards, 3 catches, 20 yards
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE
Matchup: NE@CIN
Stevenson faces multiple challenges against Cincinnati's improving defense. While the Bengals' run defense is weak (26th, allowing 126.2 yards/game), their 11th-ranked red zone defense (51.7% TD rate) could limit Stevenson's scoring opportunities in what's likely to be a pass-heavy game script for New England.
Projected: 45 rushing yards, 4 catches, 25 yards
Wide Receivers
Starts
Devonta Smith
PHI
Matchup: GB@PHI
Smith's move to primarily slot receiver should allow him to feast against Green Bay's 9th-ranked pass defense (206.8 yards/game). In a high-scoring matchup, Smith should find success against the Packers' 10th-ranked red zone defense (50.9% TD rate).
Projected: 8 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD
DJ Moore
CHI
Matchup: TEN@CHI
Moore is set to benefit from Caleb Williams' arrival, facing a Titans defense allowing 227.4 passing yards per game (18th). Despite Tennessee's strong red zone defense (1st, 37.7% TD rate), Moore's elite skills should shine in an expected shootout.
Projected: 7 receptions, 95 yards, 1 TD
Zay Flowers
BAL
Matchup: BAL@KC
Flowers has established himself as Lamar Jackson's top receiver, even in a tough matchup against Kansas City's 4th-ranked pass defense (176.5 yards/game). In an expected shootout, Flowers should have plenty of opportunities against the Chiefs' 8th-ranked red zone defense (50% TD rate).
Projected: 6 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD
Sits
Brandon Aiyuk
SF
Matchup: NYJ@SF
Aiyuk faces several challenges against the Jets' elite 2nd-ranked pass defense allowing just 168.3 yards per game. Matched up with cornerback Sauce Gardner and facing a defense with a 49% red zone TD rate (7th), Aiyuk's potential output is limited.
Projected: 4 receptions, 50 yards
George Pickens
PIT
Matchup: PIT@ATL
Pickens' potential is hampered by subpar QB play against Atlanta's surprisingly strong 8th-ranked pass defense (202.9 yards/game). The Falcons' 4th-ranked red zone defense (45.3% TD rate) further limits Pickens' scoring potential in what could be a low-volume passing game.
Projected: 3 receptions, 45 yards
Chris Olave
NO
Matchup: CAR@NO
Olave faces a tough matchup against Carolina's 3rd-ranked pass defense allowing only 171.5 yards per game. Despite the Panthers' weak red zone defense (27th, 63.2% TD rate), Olave's efficiency may suffer due to Derek Carr's inconsistent play.
Projected: 5 receptions, 65 yards
Tight Ends
Starts
Jake Ferguson
DAL
Matchup: DAL@CLE
Ferguson should see steady targets against Cleveland's 1st-ranked pass defense (164.7 yards/game), especially in the red zone. The Browns' last-ranked red zone defense (71.4% TD rate) provides ample scoring opportunities for Ferguson.
Projected: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD
Dalton Kincaid
BUF
Matchup: AZ@BUF
Kincaid faces a favorable matchup against Arizona's 31st-ranked scoring defense (26.8 points/game). The Cardinals' 24th-ranked red zone defense (60.6% TD rate) should provide Kincaid with multiple scoring opportunities in a potentially high-scoring game.
Projected: 6 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD
George Kittle
SF
Matchup: NYJ@SF
Despite a tough matchup against the Jets' 2nd-ranked pass defense (168.3 yards/game), Kittle's connection with Brock Purdy should lead to targets. The 49ers will likely rely on short, quick passes against the Jets' 7th-ranked red zone defense (49% TD rate), benefiting Kittle.
Projected: 7 receptions, 80 yards, 1 TD
Sits
Kyle Pitts
ATL
Matchup: PIT@ATL
Pitts faces a challenging matchup against Pittsburgh's 6th-ranked scoring defense (19.1 points/game). The Steelers' 5th-ranked red zone defense (46% TD rate) further limits Pitts' opportunities in what's expected to be a low-scoring game.
Projected: 3 receptions, 35 yards
Brock Bowers
LAC
Matchup: LAR@LAC
Bowers, coming back from injury, faces the Rams' 20th-ranked pass defense (231.1 yards/game). However, as he's likely to be slowly incorporated into the offense, his production may be limited despite LA's average 15th-ranked red zone defense (54.2% TD rate).
Projected: 2 receptions, 25 yards
Pat Freiermuth
PIT
Matchup: PIT@ATL
Freiermuth's outlook is dampened by expected poor quarterback play against Atlanta's 8th-ranked pass defense (202.9 yards/game). The Falcons' strong 4th-ranked red zone defense (45.3% TD rate) further limits Freiermuth's potential in a likely low-scoring game.
Projected: 3 receptions, 30 yards
Kicker
Cameron Dicker
LAC
Matchup: LVR@LAC
Dicker should benefit from a low-scoring game against the Raiders' 9th-ranked scoring defense (19.5 points/game). Las Vegas' 26th-ranked red zone defense (62.5% TD rate) may lead to multiple field goal attempts for Dicker.
Projected: 3 field goals, 2 extra points
Defense/Special Teams
Starts
Cincinnati Bengals
Matchup: NE@CIN
The Bengals DST is primed for a strong showing against a weak Patriots offense led by Jacoby Brissett. Despite ranking 31st in total defense (374.6 yards/game), Cincinnati's 11th-ranked red zone defense (51.7% TD rate) should capitalize on New England's offensive struggles.
Projected: 2 interceptions, 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 10-13 points allowed
Seattle Seahawks
Matchup: DEN@SEA
The Seahawks' defense, under their new defensive-minded coach, faces a historically struggling Broncos offense. Despite ranking 30th in total defense (371.4 yards/game), Seattle's home-field advantage and Denver's offensive woes make them a solid play.
Projected: 2 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 14-17 points allowed
Atlanta Falcons
Matchup: PIT@ATL
The Falcons' defense could surprise many fantasy managers against an inconsistent Steelers offense. Atlanta's 11th-ranked total defense (321.1 yards/game) and 4th-ranked red zone defense (45.3% TD rate) set them up well for a strong performance in an expected low-scoring game.
Projected: 3 sacks, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, 13-16 points allowed
Sit
Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup: BAL@KC
Despite both teams having strong defenses (BAL 6th, KC 2nd in total defense), this matchup is likely to be a high-scoring affair. With Baltimore allowing just 16.5 points/game (1st) and Kansas City 17.3 (2nd), these typically strong defenses are best avoided in what could be an offensive showcase.
Projected: 1-2 sacks, 1 interception, 24+ points allowed