NFL free agency ripped through two days of signings, and most fantasy draft boards are already wrong. We ran every major move through our projection models, cross-referenced injury data and historical production, and graded the deals that actually move the needle for your draft.
De'Von Achane: A+
Miami ate a record $99 million in dead cap to cut Tua Tagovailoa, then gave Malik Willis a four-year, $67.5 million contract. Willis led all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback last season on a limited sample that skewed heavily toward designed runs and check-downs.
This is a run-first offense now. That is the best thing that could have happened to Achane.
Our model projects him at 255.2 half-PPR points and 15.01 PPG -- fifth among all running backs in our rankings. Those numbers were built with Tua under center. A Willis-led ground scheme pushes Achane's workload ceiling even higher. No committee. No timeshare. At ADP 8, he belongs in the top five overall. Lock him in.
Jaylen Waddle: D
What helps Achane destroys Waddle. Our projections land him at just 136.7 half-PPR points and 8.04 PPG -- WR3 production at a WR2 price tag.
Waddle posted a 25% route target rate in 2025. That number has nowhere to go but down with a quarterback who thrives on designed runs rather than pushing the ball downfield. At ADP 33, you are spending a third-round pick on a receiver stuck in a run-first scheme with a clear quarterback downgrade. Fade at current cost.
Michael Pittman: B+
Per Mike Garafolo of NFL Network, Pittsburgh signed Pittman to a three-year, $59 million deal. The production backing that contract is real: 80 catches on 111 targets for 784 yards and a career-high 7 touchdowns in 2025.
Our projection of 143.1 half-PPR points and 8.42 PPG was built in Indianapolis alongside Anthony Richardson. Pittsburgh changes the math entirely. Pittman joins DK Metcalf (179.2 projected points, ADP 48) to form one of the league's most physically imposing receiver duos, and that 111-target floor from last season provides a solid baseline before factoring in a potential quarterback upgrade.
At ADP 63 in half-PPR, Pittman is underpriced for a receiver on a $59 million deal with a clear path to 100-plus targets.
Romeo Doubs: B-
New England signed Doubs to a four-year deal worth roughly $70 million, locking him in as the team's WR1 opposite Drake Maye.
The opportunity is legitimate. The track record is modest. Doubs averaged 50.5 catches for 606 yards and 5.3 touchdowns per season across four years in Green Bay. Our projections have him at 145.2 half-PPR points at ADP 110.
The gap between the contract and the career production is wide. The guaranteed target funnel pushes his ceiling into WR2 territory, but he has never produced like a true alpha. Draft him as your WR3 with WR2 upside, not as a locked-in starter.
Emeka Egbuka: C-
Mike Evans left Tampa Bay for San Francisco. Egbuka inherits the WR1 job by default. Our data shows 232 projected half-PPR points and 13.65 PPG at ADP 39. Those numbers look strong on paper.
The problem: those projections were built with Evans commanding defensive attention on the outside. Without that coverage magnet, Egbuka faces tougher assignments. He finished bottom-10 in receiver separation per ESPN's open score metric among qualifying wideouts in 2025. Chris Godwin (246 projected points, ADP 126) is still in the mix and Baker Mayfield still has weapons, but the target distribution that fed Egbuka as a complementary piece shifts dramatically when he becomes the primary coverage target.
At ADP 39, you are paying for upside the separation metrics do not support. We want him at a discount or not at all.
The Bottom Line
Free agency created clear tiers of value. Achane is a top-five fantasy asset in any format. Waddle is a third-round trap. Pittman landed in a spot where his floor holds and his ceiling rises. Doubs has the role but needs to prove he deserves it. Egbuka's promotion looks more like a warning sign than a reward.
Run these updated scenarios through FantasyGPT at fantasygpt.org to see how each move changes your optimal draft build. The market will catch up to these signings. Get there first.
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