The best quarterback in football is coming off a torn ACL. Your draft strategy needs to adjust immediately.
Patrick Mahomes went down with a torn ACL and LCL in Week 15 against the Chargers, and the recovery math is brutal. Nine months from surgery puts the earliest realistic return right at the start of the regular season — and history tells us even elite athletes rarely look like themselves in Week 1 after a major knee reconstruction. For fantasy purposes, plan on Mahomes missing at least the first two to three weeks, with a real possibility he's not fully locked in until October.
His current ADP of 12 in PPR formats is aggressive for a quarterback facing this much uncertainty. That number needs to come down, and it will.
Rashee Rice: Elite Talent, Murky Situation
Rice (ADP 35) was cementing himself as a legitimate top-tier fantasy receiver before the injury. At 25, he's the clear WR1 in Kansas City, and his target share should stay elite regardless of who's under center. But here's the reality — Rice's fantasy ceiling is directly tied to Mahomes' ability to push the ball downfield and extend plays. A backup quarterback running a conservative offense turns Rice from a top-15 WR into a volume-dependent WR2 with a hard ceiling.
Xavier Worthy: Speed Without the Deep Ball
Worthy (ADP 51) arguably loses the most from a Mahomes absence. The 22-year-old's game is built on speed and big-play ability — exactly the kind of production that evaporates when a backup quarterback is managing the game. Worthy needs a passer who can hit him in stride on go routes and post corners. Without Mahomes, his role could shrink to gadget plays and screens.
The Running Back Room Gets Interesting
Kansas City's backfield is already crowded and uncertain. Dameon Pierce (ADP 132), Brashard Smith (ADP 141), and Isiah Pacheco (ADP 175) are all on the roster, and none of them have a stranglehold on the lead role. The Chiefs have legitimate interest in Travis Etienne Jr. as a free agent, and they've been connected to Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love in draft mocks.
Here's the thing — a Mahomes absence could actually help the running backs short term. Backup quarterbacks lean on the ground game, and Kansas City's offensive line is still built to run the ball. Whoever emerges as the lead back could see 18-plus touches per game in a condensed passing attack. This is a backfield to monitor closely through free agency and the draft.
Travis Kelce: Father Time Meets the Backup QB
Kelce (ADP 208) is 36 years old and his ADP already reflects a player in decline. Without Mahomes, Kelce's floor drops even further. His route-running and football IQ can still produce in the right scheme, but the connection between Kelce and Mahomes has been one of the most unstoppable forces in NFL history. A backup quarterback simply cannot replicate that chemistry overnight.
The Bottom Line
The Mahomes ACL injury doesn't destroy Kansas City's fantasy value — it reframes it. Every Chiefs skill player needs to be drafted one to two rounds later than their current ADP suggests, with the understanding that Mahomes' return could unlock massive upside in the second half of the season. The key is not to panic, but to price in the risk.
The Combine is running all week — watch for Kansas City's draft targets. Free agency opens March 11, and any RB addition changes this backfield calculus overnight.
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Sources: ESPN, Kansas City Star, Athlon Sports, SI — Feb 2026