Draft Ashton Jeanty among the weekly starters; he should handle at least 15 carries per game. His carries and Brock Bowers' middle-of-field routes are the parts of the Las Vegas Raiders offense least dependent on immediate timing with a new passer. Geno Smith's move to the Jets makes that distinction the team's central fantasy question.
Current roster data lists Fernando Mendoza at quarterback.
Bowers belongs after the elite tight-end tier. Tre Tucker and Jack Bech are waits until one receiver proves he can stay on the field with both stars. The reset under center changes the throws available to everyone, but it doesn't erase every job equally.
Jeanty's workload travels better than the offense
Jeanty doesn't need Mendoza to fix the passing game immediately. His fantasy case starts with a backfield that was already moving toward him when last season ended. Down the stretch, FFN recorded 17 rushes a game.
He also averaged 3.8 targets.
His snap share reached 82.4% over that span. Those are two separate ways to survive a rough afternoon.
FFN's Week 18 log against Kansas City made the role impossible to miss. Jeanty handled 26 carries and drew five targets.
He also played 97% of the snaps. Las Vegas finished with nearly the same number of runs and passes that day, so his involvement wasn't tied to one game script. He stayed central whether the offense handed him the ball or needed a short completion.
That's the standard for the 2026 bet. A young quarterback can lean on a back in the quick game, and a coaching staff can reduce the burden on that quarterback by building early downs around the run. Jeanty gives head coach Klint Kubiak and offensive coordinator Andrew Janocko both options without requiring a substitution or a new personnel group.
The offense still has to create scoring chances. Last season, Las Vegas threw on 65.3% of its red-zone plays, while the overall pass rate reached 64.4%. A new play caller isn't bound to those rates, but they explain why heavy snaps didn't guarantee a friendly rushing-touchdown environment. Jeanty can win on volume and catches. A true top-end finish becomes harder if the Raiders keep stalling before the goal line or continue throwing so often in close.
We don't need to pretend the offense is settled to make the call. Three targets a game would keep Jeanty involved through good and bad scripts. If that work disappears or his snap share falls toward a committee, the starting-tier case has missed its foundation.
Bowers gives Mendoza an answer
Bowers is the other Raider whose job makes sense before the passing game does. Over his final five appearances of 2025, FFN recorded 6.2 targets per game and a 96.4% snap share. His target share held at 22.4% during that span. He was available on nearly every play, and the ball still found him in an offense that had trouble sustaining drives.
The route geometry matters more than the old quarterback's name. Bowers can work over the middle, settle near the sticks and give Mendoza a target before pressure turns a dropback into a scramble. Those throws don't require the same timing as a deep outside route. They also fit an offense likely to use play action and heavier protection while a rookie learns what NFL defenses are hiding before the snap.
Bowers' Week 16 usage offers the football memory here. He drew five targets and played 98% of the offensive snaps. The box score wasn't carrying his case by itself. The Raiders were still treating him like an every-down player, which kept every route family open.
Take Bowers once the elite tight ends are gone, but don't pay as though quarterback uncertainty can't touch him. FFN projects 118 targets, and that expectation asks the passing game to preserve a concentrated target tree. Jeanty can claim short throws. Conservative game plans can reduce total plays. A low touchdown count would make it difficult for Bowers to separate from the next tight-end tier even if his weekly floor remains useful.
The good part is easy to explain: Bowers rarely leaves the field. The concern is whether enough of those snaps become catchable targets near the goal line. That's a narrower risk than asking an unproven third option to win both the job and Mendoza's trust.
Receiver decision map
| Preseason Signal | Tucker Move | Bech Move |
|---|---|---|
| Tucker gets motion, quick throws and third-down work with the regular offense | Target Tucker | Keep Bech on the watch list |
| Bech stays in two-receiver sets beside Jeanty and Bowers | Wait on Tucker | Stash Bech |
Jeanty and Bowers have jobs to defend. Tucker and Bech still have jobs to define.
Tucker has field access, but the routes need a purpose
Tucker enters camp ahead of Bech because he already showed he could stay on the field. Over the final five weeks of 2025, he played 97% of the snaps, averaged five targets and accounted for 26.7% of the intended air yards. In Week 18, he drew six targets on a 98% snap share.
That profile should earn him the first opportunity with the regular offense. It shouldn't automatically earn a fantasy bench spot. A receiver can run nearly every route and still spend too much of the game clearing coverage for Bowers, blocking on Jeanty runs or waiting for low-percentage throws outside the numbers. Tucker needs touches that tell us the staff wants the ball in his hands.
Watch where he lines up when Jeanty and Bowers are both on the field. Motion can identify coverage and create free releases. Quick-game targets can turn his speed into yards after the catch without asking Mendoza to hold the ball. Third-down routes show whether the quarterback and coaches trust him when the offense can't hide behind a run threat.
Tucker becomes a bench target when those assignments accompany his full-time snaps. His final three games of 2025 offered some encouragement: 5.7 targets per game, a 22.4% target share and 99.3% of the snaps. The role was getting busier. Now it has to become intentional.
If preseason usage shows the same field time with little designed work, wait. Routes are an opportunity only when the offense gives the receiver a reasonable chance to finish them.
Bech has a path, but he must win the personnel battle
Bech's case starts from a different place. Over the final five weeks, FFN's role log put him at 3.4 targets per game and a 69.8% snap share. He also accounted for 20.3% of the intended air yards. His playing time had climbed from the previous stretch, and the downfield share suggests Las Vegas was testing him beyond underneath cleanup work.
Week 18 showed why the job remains open. Bech received two targets and played 58% of the snaps while Tucker was on the field almost constantly. That's too large a personnel gap to treat them as equal bets today. Bech needs to stay in the formation when the Raiders use two receivers, because those snaps are most likely to pair him with Jeanty and Bowers and force the defense to declare where its help is going.
His opportunity isn't simply to replace Tucker. A new quarterback and staff can reorder the details of the receiver room. Bech could earn the more reliable blocking assignment, become the better intermediate option or prove he handles condensed formations well enough to stay involved when Las Vegas leans into the run. Any of those developments would create routes tied to the offense's core plan.
For now, he's a watch-list player. Stash him only if his first-team snap share rises and he remains on the field in two-receiver sets. A few preseason catches against reserve defenders won't be enough. The important evidence is who else is in the huddle when he gets the snap.
Two stars can leave only scraps for the third option
The Raiders don't have to support four fantasy picks for this offense to function. Jeanty can take early-down work and checkdowns. Bowers can own the middle. Heavier protection can help Mendoza while removing a route from the pattern. In that version of the offense, the third option may run plenty of routes but see the ball only when the first two answers are covered.
The opening schedule adds pressure to prove the role quickly. Las Vegas travels to Indianapolis in Week 1 with a 19.5-point implied team total in a game carrying a low total grade. One August betting line can't forecast an entire season, though it does warn against assuming immediate touchdown volume for every Raiders starter.
This is why the receiver winner needs more than a ceremonial start. We want the player who stays on the field for third down, moves with the formation and receives throws that help Mendoza stay on schedule. Tucker has the first claim because his late-season playing time was overwhelming. Bech can change the order by taking the two-receiver snaps that matter most.
The risk is that Jeanty loses passing-down work, Bowers' target tree spreads wider than expected and neither receiver earns a stable job. For Tucker and Bech, the first useful answer comes before the box score: watch which receiver the Raiders refuse to substitute when Jeanty and Bowers break the huddle together.
- player role trendsFrom Weeks 14-18 of 2025, Ashton Jeanty averaged 17 carries, 3.8 targets and an 82.4% snap share.
- player role trendsBrock Bowers averaged 6.2 targets while playing 96.4% of the snaps over his final five appearances of 2025.
- player role trendsTre Tucker played 97% of the snaps and averaged five targets over the final five weeks, while Jack Bech played 69.8% and averaged 3.4 targets.
- transaction trackerThe official transaction record shows Geno Smith was traded from Las Vegas to the Jets.
- team tendenciesLas Vegas recorded a 64.4% pass rate and a 65.3% red-zone pass rate in 2025.